Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
[1] The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard‐Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural ...
متن کاملEarly Warning Signals of Tipping-Points in Blog Posts
Complex systems in a variety of disciplines are punctuated by tipping-points, where the system undergoes an abrupt rapid change of state. Early warning signals of such tipping-points can be detected via a concept called critical slowing down by examining a set of statistical metrics. A method based on critical slowing down is used to examine the sentiment of a localized set of blog posts in the...
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and we will write to you when there is a bed available yes I know it's painful, and six months is a long time to wait, but I am afraid we have already lost two wards this year because of the cuts. Mrs Thatcher keeps taking money away from us to spend on Trident Missiles Yes I wish you would write to your Member of Parliament about it. Hello Sister, is it tea time yet? Sister: Not yet I'm afraid...
متن کاملWishful Thinking
An experiment tested whether and in what circumstances people are more likely to believe an event simply because it makes them better off. Subjects observed a financial asset’s historical price chart, and received both an accuracy bonus for predicting the price at some future point, and an unconditional award that was either increasing or decreasing in this price. Despite incentives for hedging...
متن کاملTipping points and early warning signals in the genomic composition of populations induced by environmental changes
We live in an ever changing biosphere that faces continuous and often stressing environmental challenges. From this perspective, much effort is currently devoted to understanding how natural populations succeed or fail in adapting to evolving conditions. In a different context, many complex dynamical systems experience critical transitions where their dynamical behaviour or internal structure c...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2010gl044486